Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Up and Down Overnight Session on Continued Unrest in the Middle East

US futures continued up last night as the ES traded as high as 1336.50. Rumors surfaced, however, that Saudi tanks were sent into Bahrain to put a damper on anti-government protests. Oil futures surged as a result influencing European markets and US Futures to give up some of their earlier gains.

As usual situations in the Middle-East continue to be the catalyst for Volatility. Bahrain is of particular interest to Saudi Arabia as its neighbor to the East is experiencing significant unrest from the Shiite opposition whose goal is to oust Bahrain's prime minister of the past 40 years. It is obvious that Saudi Arabia does not want its own Shiite population to be influenced to carry on similar anti-government protests.

ISM Manufacturing Index data at 10:00am EST, Ben Bernanke will speak in front of the US senate beginning at 10:00am EST as well and could provide more fuel to influence market action.

I am currently neutral and will consider buying off support and selling off resistance. Shorts still provide faster downside potential than longs provide upside potential. I don't see the ES breaking the 1340-1343 highs anytime soon, so though I am neutral at the moment, in the bigger picture my bias is to the downside. Watch for volatility inspiring news out of Middle East/North Africa (MENA).

Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1334-1335, 1339-1340, 1343
Support below at: 1327-1328, 1319-1320, 1313-1314
Posted by Verde at 9:09 AM
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17 comments:

  1. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Long ES at 1320.25

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  2. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    Considering taking profits at 1322-1323 or put a stop at 1319.50 or break-even and hold longer

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  3. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    I was stopped out for a scratch.

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  4. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:32 AM

    Long ES at 1319

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  5. AnonymousMarch 1, 2011 at 10:33 AM

    Morning Verde - Take quick profits from the long side today...

    Vis

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  6. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:34 AM

    Putting break-even stop again.

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  7. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    Consider short at 1323-1324 ES

    Vis I will address your comment later regarding trades and how they are posted here. I will be reconsidering when and how I post trades to make it more useful...

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  8. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 11:00 AM

    No trade yet, 1325-1326 up at the VWAP is a safer spot to wait for rather than getting to aggressive here at 1323-1324

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  9. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    Long ES 1314

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  10. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 12:04 PM

    Target is 1318-1319

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  11. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    On a long trade like my current one, if you don't have the patience to wait it out, especially when we see consolidation here at the lows and also during the often slow lunch period, you can always take profits sooner or scalp the consolidation range. However, it is possible for the price to move up without you and I fully expect price to move back up to 1318-1320 later in the day.

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  12. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 1:28 PM

    Add 1 Contract at 1311

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  13. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 1:36 PM

    Average Entry now at 1312.50. Cover 1 contract there which makes my entry price on the 1 remaining contract 1312.50

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  14. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 1:42 PM

    Playing it safe and exiting 2nd contract too. Cover at 1312.50 for break-even. I will look to get long again potentially...

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  15. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 2:04 PM

    I'll need a capitulation type move down or evidence of a likely bottom before considering getting back long...

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  16. AnonymousMarch 1, 2011 at 2:19 PM

    This is why I stated quick profits on the long side today. You have to be careful with that "fully expect" mentality when trading the markets. You will be humbled very quickly...

    Vis

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  17. VerdeMarch 1, 2011 at 5:16 PM

    I like to think of myself as a pretty humble trader :)

    Both long entries I posted today showed solid profit potential with minimal risk. I am always confident in my trade entries and I hope it is understood that when I say I expect something, that opinion can change. There are many successful ways to trade, all trading strategies are relative to objectives. The key is to be able to understand when the objectives become unlikely and to exit positions with the least amount of downside risk. The two trades I posted showed that today. In both cases there was potential to take profits and in both cases there was potential to extend those profits. The potential to extend did not play out today.

    I can't display scalp trades (or quick profit trades) in this medium. They can not be posted in a timely enough manner to make them useful.

    I understand that I need to write up some descriptions of what types of trades I post here and what the expectations are for them. I promise to do that and hopefully that will eliminate confusion in the future

    ReplyDelete

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