Not Taking Longs...

The fact that we spent so little time down at 1100 yesterday makes it less surprising that we came back down to this level so quickly today. The fact that we didn't quite make it up to yesterday's high this morning and then filled the gap so quickly is not a good sign for the market. I am slowly turning my bias to the short side. However, market tops often take time to play out. So we can still move back up and flirt with the high 11 teens... But only weakness showing now... Scalp long is OK, but nothing to hold yet.

We Have Unofficial Gap Fill

Wow, I wasn't expecting that to happen so quickly. Well, we don't quite have official gap fill yet, so still a good chance that happens at 1103.

I was looking for 1098 yesterday, so maybe we will still see that price today. Not in a rush to get long yet, but thinking about it anywhere in the 1098 to 1103 range...

Will consider short sided scalps in the mean time...

Nice Gap Up This Morning

I didn't enter long last night and the market did not spend any time down in my 1098-1100 support area. So missed the opportunity to get long. Market is strong this morning, but has just reversed on some resistance in the 1112s. I do expect to retest the 1118 highs today. I will only be looking for scalps for now since I missed the chance to get long last night...

Short Term Bias to the Long Side Now

So we finally did get a descent move to the downside right into my 1098-1100 support zone. I am biased now to the long side and will consider buying opportunities heading into tomorrow's trading. But we'll have to see how the market opens on Thursday to be sure. Not taking longs yet...

Still Looking for Direction?

So we came down and traded below my 1104 first target, but since then it has been another day of chop fest. We are approaching the lows here again and my expectation is that we break down and get below 1100 on the ES. The 50 period MA on the 60 min chart has just began to curve down. Could this be the final sign to send this market down officially? I've been very patient thus far, not fun. What happened to the days when we would get sustained moves instead of computer driven chop?

Looking for Direction

Looks like we are going to open right around yesterday's close. We traded up to 1115.75 in overnight trading and sold off a bit early this morning. I'm looking for a move down to 1104 and possibly to 1100. I will look to buy into the market down to 1098 (A confirmed move below 1098 will signal weakness and I will not look to get long if that happens). If the long entry works, I will be looking for a move back up to 1115 to 1118 and possibly new highs.

One important thing to note is that we we have already seen a 10% move above the lows from early July. That makes the previous highs at 1118.75 a potential short term high.

Just a Choppy Day

Since breaking below 1110 the market has just meandered up and down. Looks like we will finish the day right around 1110 giving no clear indication of direction. Question is did they take the market down to eliminate the weak longs and accumulate before taking the market higher. Its a good question. I do believe we will move higher as I expect that we trade up in the high 1120s and maybe even to the low 1140s before the market makes a significant move to the downside. Today's action however suggests that we may trade back down to 1098-1100 before continuing higher. In any case, the next major pivot high will undoubtedly be difficult to catch before the next major market move down...

Will Support Come Back In?

We need to confirm back above 1110 to right this ship... Lets see if we find support at 1103.50, but looking like we may trade back down to 1100. If we retrace back to 1110, I will look to enter short...

Covered Long at 1108.25

Market breaking down. Waiting to see if we find support at which point I will consider getting long again.

Market Continues to Show Strength

Resistance at 1118-1119 and 1127-1129
Support at 1110-1111.50 (Gap Fill from this morning)

Taking a long here at 1110.25 (ES)
Looking for move back up to at least 1117

1110 is a significant level. We need to hold support here. Closing below 1110 will be negative for the markets while closing above 1110, as we did yesterday, will support the notion of market strength. I expect strength to continue.

Buyers in Control This Morning

The buyers have won each battle this morning as we have ticked up to new highs. I am not loving the market action, but I will be looking to buy a pullback as I expect higher highs... Actually, just took a long at 1103.25 (ES), will not defend this... Expecting at least a move back to 1107

Sold my ES Position at 1094

Took profits for an 8 point gain. I am expecting new highs and will look to get long again if we get a nice pull back opportunity.

Long at 1086

We dipped below 1085 this morning and the market is showing weakness... However we are finding a little support now so I decided to take a long in anticipation of a move higher. This is a little bit aggressive, but I am taking a chance on 1084 being the low. I will not defend below 1084.

Market Finds Support and Bounces Back

If you tried to get long in the low 1060s on the ES in the last hour of trading yesterday, it was a difficult thing to do. The market was very weak and very choppy while making the low. You needed patience and discipline to hold onto that long position. I took a long at 1063 but eventually sold it. I was hoping for a better bounce before the close of trading, but it didn't happen. We had some algorithmic HFT action making it very difficult to hold the long. You would have to watch your P/L give up profit after profit by continuing to hold as the market ticked up then ticked back down and did this over and over. We even ticked back down in the overnight session before finally beginning the real move back up around 1:30am EST. Market is bullish and it is still looking like we should hit at least 1110 on the ES which coincides with the top of the Keltner Channel on a daily chart. However, the next resistance will be at 1099, lets see if we approach that before the end of trading today... I am looking for an opportunity to get long in the 1080 to 1085 range, if we pull back there.

I like the fact that we gapped up today and the market looks poised to move higher. That will leave this gap to be filled at a later date which would be in support of my thought to short the market at a later point...

Long at 1066

Be careful here, will be hesitant to defend below 1065.

Bernanke Speaks, Market Tanks

Not Interested in Buying Yet, Market looks like it is going to break below 1075 now... Will post if I take a trade... I will look to sell a retest of 1075 after we break below it...

We Got Gap Fill

We filled the gap and kept going, meaning the 1080 support from yesterday's settlement did not hold. We have found some support just below, but there has not been enough buying here to bring the market back above 1080. This is weakness. I am not taking any positions at the moment as the market is flat. I still like long entries in the 1070 to 1075 range. Not looking to get long until then unless the ES confirms a move back above 1080; I will consider buying a pullback at that point.

Market Continues Move Up in After Hours Session

The World Markets gained overnight as did the US Futures markets. The ES is trading above the 1085 resistance which could become support this morning. Markets did retrace back a little bit (down to 1076.50), but have rebounded to make new highs. I'm still looking for 1075, but now it looks like we may have to wait a couple days for that to happen as it is very unlikely we see much selling today (though the morning action will have to confirm this by holding support at 1080). There is plenty of resistance overhead and there is no clear level before 1098, so the markets could easily continue moving up. We are getting ready to open the equities markets with a gap up. Lets see if it is a gap and push higher or if we are going to fill that gap. Gap fill on ES would be 1079 to 1080.50, so that is another level to watch this morning. Tricky area to play, but I'll be expecting a choppy market with a long side bias.

What Today's Action Means to Me

I am biased to the long side after today's steady climb upwards since this morning's gap down. The gap down was just below solid support at 1055 on the ES. The reactionary buying off those lows are what lead me to take a bullish stance going forward. That doesn't mean enter long position right now. We are overbought for the moment. What I will wait for before I take any new long positions, is a retest back to the 1070 to 1075 range. I will be looking to get long in that range with anticipation of getting back above 1100 on the ES. We bounced off a solid resistance level in the GLOBEX session at 1085 after Apple earnings pushed the market higher. I do think we will eventually break through the 1085 mark, but I'll wait for the lower range 1070 to 1075 before I look to get long.

Considering Long Positions Now

ES hit a low of 1066.25. There is still room to go lower, but I like the support in the 1063 to 1066.50 range. If we somehow break below 1063 and close the day down there, that will be very negative for the markets and could signify a push down to retest the lows sooner than I expected. Until that happens however, I am biased to the long side.

Bearish Stance Now

Any longs at this point will only be scalps until we confirm back above 1077. Long Positions can be considered as holds only after a confirmed move above 1077. I will scalp short if we retrace back to 1075 now.

Taking A Cautious Long here at 1074.25

Will not defend this, if we break below 1073, market could sell off significantly more... Some more Support at 1070.

Approaching the 1073 to 1075 Entry Range on the ES

Still looking to get long in the 1073 to 1075 range. But being careful. Consumer Sentiment just came in very negative. Lets see if the market reacts...

Covered My Short at 1085.50

We saw a nice sell-off, but when the ES failed to move below 1081, I decided to get out for a small profit when the market began to tick back up. I still think there is a chance we move down in the evening session, but I couldn't hold on into the close based on the price action.

What I'm Looking for Into the Evening and Tomorrow Morning

I'd like to see a move down in the evening session. If we trade down to 1073 - 1075, I will look for long entries in anticipation of a move to 1100 on the ES. Thats my short term outlook at the moment... Still holding my short...

We Did Get Gap Fill this Morning

We didn't quite get official gap fill this morning, but we got to a low of 1076.25 which is within the gap fill range between 1077.25 and 1073.50. After seeing a mini reversal to the upside, we are now stalling at 1087 on the ES. This is good resistance and I actually went short here. I believe we could go back down and make official gap fill at 1075.25. We'll see. I will hold this. If it moves against me, I will wait till it pulls back and then I will scratch the trade. Lets see where we go from here...

Looking Like We Will Fill the Gap from 7/12

I was hoping that we would not fill the gap yet. If we kept marching up to say 1102 or even all the way up to 1130, I would feel much more confident when taking shorts at those locations. This would give much better odds at a larger move down. i.e. from 1130 to gap fill at 1075 on the ES, that would be 55 points.

With the sell-off this afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see gap fill at 1075 in the overnight session or tomorrow. I am hoping the market can rebound from here and continue up on more positive earnings news. At that point it can sell-off.

However, the market may just be trying to shake out weak longs here. At that point we will see the market rally higher. Its all fine. Either way, the market should be setting up to sell off. I'll let you know when I jump on it. Hopefully I don't miss it...

Market Outlook

Market definitely Bullish of late. I had said previously that I expect the lows to be retested before we see a genuine market rally. By genuine market rally I mean moving beyond the January highs and possibly retesting the April highs. I do not think this can happen without first coming back to test the 1000 level on the ES. That being said, I am not going to sell this market just yet. I won't be looking to to take any potential swing shorts until we trade up beyond 1110. I will be looking at opportunities to get into a swing short between 1110 and 1132. Somewhere in this range will mark the highs before the next significant move down.

Other key levels on the ES, above where we are currently trading, are 1102 and 1143. I will be looking at short opportunities at these levels as well.

Out of My Short

1102 is the next major level of interest as there will be some solid resistance there...

Short ES at 1087.75

We have filled the gap this morning from the close on the 28th of June. We have also gapped up this morning from yesterday;s close. My target is to fill yesterday's gap at 1075. I like this short as long as we don't move above 1091 on the ES. Overall however, we are seeing some bullish action. I will look for opportunities to get long in the 1070s.

We are Range Bound Ahead of the "Next" Significant Move

I took a little holiday last week, but I'm back to trading again. We are at a key range between 1068 and 1080 on the ES. If we confirm a move above 1080, I will be looking to buy the pull backs as that would be a bullish sign. However, the more likely scenario in my mind is that we move down from here. The signal would be a confirmed move below 1065. I still believe that the lows have yet to be reached in this market. If we are going to get a real push higher, we are going to have to flirt with the lows one more time. That means threatening 1000 on the ES. I wouldn't be surprised to get a pierce of the psychological 1000 level.

Today's trading is very choppy, a typical behavior before a significant move in one direction. There are many flushes up and down to try and get as many people out of position as possible right before taking the market higher or lower. We'll see what direction the market decides to move. My bet is down...

Note: Alcoa kicks off earnings after market close. The market has gained over the past week ahead of earnings. That is another part of the reason I am bearish here. May be the opportunity to sell positive earnings...

Sell, Sell, Sell!

That's what the market continues to do. S&P down 1.5% today and looking to find a low for the day. We are already past my 1010-1012 support and the next major support level is going to be 1000 on the ES.