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Watch for volatility in the markets this afternoon. A failure to show a positive inclination to more easing or QE3 shouldn't have as much of a negative effect on price action as it has in the past, as the market is not expecting it as much as in previous months. One thing to look out for is the Fed's forecast on growth and inflation and if it continues to stick with the plan to keep rates low. Any mention that there is not a need to stick with the plan to keep rates low until at least 2014 should influence selling in the market. In any case, I think there is more of a chance for disappointment in reaction to the Fed's forecast rather than elation... we'll see...
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Apple Earnings Boost Markets as We Wait for the FOMC Announcement
We got the market strength I was expecting following strong Apple earnings after yesterday's close and that strength continued overnight as the ES traded up as high as 1382. Some selling briefly entered the market following a disappointing durable goods number, but buyers quickly stepped back in.
I'll be waiting for the FOMC announcement (12:30pm EST) and Ben Bernanke's press conference (2:15pm EST) later this afternoon. Bernanke will be careful to be as vague as possible in his comments. He will say that the economy is recovering but not at as fast a clip as the Fed would like and that if economic conditions warrant it, the Fed has the ability to act which means more easing, which means more QE. At the same time he will hint that he sees no need for more QE and that if economic conditions continue to improve, the Fed could raise interest rate sooner than previously stated. While the market interprets this we will see moves upwards as one interprets there could be more QE and moves downward as one interprets that interest rates may not stay low forever.
As long as Bernanke maintains vagueness with his Fed speak, I think you can buy any sharp sell-offs and sell any significant rallies this afternoon. I expect choppy market action will continue.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1384-1386, 1389-1390, 1395-1396
Support below at: 1375-1376, 1370-1371, 1364-1365
I'll be waiting for the FOMC announcement (12:30pm EST) and Ben Bernanke's press conference (2:15pm EST) later this afternoon. Bernanke will be careful to be as vague as possible in his comments. He will say that the economy is recovering but not at as fast a clip as the Fed would like and that if economic conditions warrant it, the Fed has the ability to act which means more easing, which means more QE. At the same time he will hint that he sees no need for more QE and that if economic conditions continue to improve, the Fed could raise interest rate sooner than previously stated. While the market interprets this we will see moves upwards as one interprets there could be more QE and moves downward as one interprets that interest rates may not stay low forever.
As long as Bernanke maintains vagueness with his Fed speak, I think you can buy any sharp sell-offs and sell any significant rallies this afternoon. I expect choppy market action will continue.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1384-1386, 1389-1390, 1395-1396
Support below at: 1375-1376, 1370-1371, 1364-1365
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