Monday, November 2, 2009
Covered SPY at $103.72
If we pass $103.90, that pretty much erases any chance we have at coming back down and penetrating the double bottom
Back Down to Yesterday's Lows After Bouncing off Resistance
SPY does move past $104.50 this morning to break the range, then bounces off resistance at 200 day moving average and 50% retracement from Friday's Decline.
(Figure 1.)
We are currently at the Low's of the day. There may be a small scalp play off the double bottom we are presently seeing, however, I expect that we will eventually break through the $103.08 double bottom and reach the $102.70 level on SPY before the day is over.
Shorted SPY w/out having a stop market and I paid for it
Shorted SPY at $104.45... when it rose up above $104.50 on its way to $104.60, it took off, just like I mentioned in my last post. However, because I didn't have a stop market order in place, I was not able to cover my short position until $104.92. That is a terrible trade. That is a rookie trade. A silly mistake that should never happen. Always have a stop market order in place to protect yourself. If you are trying to cover a position that is moving against you rapidly, it makes it difficult to make rational decisions in the process and you will almost always get filled at a price way above or below what you would have liked...
Looking ahead to Monday morning
I'm feeling very tired as I write this, but take note of a couple scenarios for market open this morning.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish.
Look for the market to continue down in early morning trading.
Heavy volume should provide even greater confidence that the market will move down. If it does move down... Look for support at $102.55. That would be down 1.05% from Friday's close. Could reach as low as $102.09 to $101.88.
If the market heads upwards, expect a struggle to gain any momentum up to the $104.50 price point. If we get that high and SPY can break $104.60, we have the chance to have some upward momentum... Watch also for a gap up tomorrow morning... If we Gap up above $104.60, look to buy. If we Gap up, but below that $104.60 point, consider shorting to fill the gap.
Assuming we move up tomorrow morning, beyond the $104.60 price, look for resistance at the 100 or 200 day moving average, which is currently at the $105.19 and $105.34 marks respectively. If we break those levels... look to possibly recover most of Friday's losses.
The upside potential aside, I want to to reiterate my bearish stance at the moment.
Thats all I have for now... I must get some sleep, I hope that I will have time to post again before market open.
Overall Sentiment: Bearish.
Look for the market to continue down in early morning trading.
Heavy volume should provide even greater confidence that the market will move down. If it does move down... Look for support at $102.55. That would be down 1.05% from Friday's close. Could reach as low as $102.09 to $101.88.
If the market heads upwards, expect a struggle to gain any momentum up to the $104.50 price point. If we get that high and SPY can break $104.60, we have the chance to have some upward momentum... Watch also for a gap up tomorrow morning... If we Gap up above $104.60, look to buy. If we Gap up, but below that $104.60 point, consider shorting to fill the gap.
Assuming we move up tomorrow morning, beyond the $104.60 price, look for resistance at the 100 or 200 day moving average, which is currently at the $105.19 and $105.34 marks respectively. If we break those levels... look to possibly recover most of Friday's losses.
The upside potential aside, I want to to reiterate my bearish stance at the moment.
Thats all I have for now... I must get some sleep, I hope that I will have time to post again before market open.
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