Thursday, January 13, 2011

Market Weaker After Worse Than Expected Jobless Claims

Market sells off initially in response to 30,000 more jobless claims than consensus estimates.

Initial Claims 445K vs 415K
December PPI +1.1% vs +0.8%
December Core PPI +0.2% vs +0.2%
Continuing Claims falls to 3.879 mln from 4.127 mln
November Trade Balance -$38.3 bln vs -$41.0 bln

1290 is now a key level on the ES assuming we trade that high today or tomorrow. CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production due out tomorrow morning... I continue to like shorting new highs as we are approaching a short-term market top. Just remember, no defense on shorts in this bullish environment. Shorts now are speculative as there has been no break in this bull market's up-trend.

Ahead of the Data

Markets trading near yesterday's highs ahead of this morning's data with PPI and Jobless claims due out in 15 minutes (8:30am EST).

Watch the 1286-1288 price point (ES). I like shorts here assuming the data this morning's is not overwhelmingly positive.

Resistance above at 1285-1286, 1287-1288, 1290. So really, anywhere up to 1290 from the current high of 1284.50. If I have to pick a number it would be 1287

Support below at 1277, 1270, 1265