US Futures gapping up this morning as buying continues following Friday's gains. Price of oil continues to pull-back despite no improvement in the Libya situation. Tension in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) is only increasing as anti-government protests have now spread to Oman. Seems that fear over the price of oil has been contained on the reassurance by Saudi Arabia to replace any lost production. Can't ignore current strength as markets continue to rebound throughout the world.
Though it is easy to believe the markets are going to continue their customary path (of late) to make new highs, I am not yet convinced that is the case. We still need to see the ES break above the 1330-1331 resistance before knowing that the highs can even be re-tested, and even if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see some volatile action that moves price on the ES up and down through the 1300 to 1340 would-be range before breaking up to new highs or down to new lows.
I am tentatively bullish today, though I like shorts at 1329-1331 (ES).
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1326-1327, 1330-1331
Support below at: 1319-1320, 1312-1313, 1304-1305
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Morning Verde - A couple possibilities: Since they have reclaimed the 1315 area we go higher, or they will keep it up through the last day of the month which is today and then come back down with it. Charts are still very overbought and we need a pullback to reset things a bit. Tricky spot right here. PMI and Home Sales at 10:00a. Should be interesting...
ReplyDeleteVis
Short ES 1328.25
ReplyDeleteNew highs set intra-day, but momentum slowed as ES approaching overhead resistance. Looking for a move down to 1322-1323
ReplyDeleteShort doesn't look as good now, should have already sold down. Can consider taking profits sooner or scratching if price moves back to entry
ReplyDeleteTaking profits at 1326
ReplyDeleteIt may continue down, but volume too low for me to risk staying in...
ReplyDeleteMorning Vis, what's your trading plan today?
ReplyDeleteJust watching for now - Want to see how they close it... The intraday dynamics look different than they have been the last month or so which has me still leaning towards a continued move down after they finish the February books today... But, not looking for anything more than the 1250 area in March and even that number could prove hard to hit... If they decide to go higher with it, 1380s may be in the cards for March... But as always, we trade the "intraday" and let the charts tell us what to do...
ReplyDeleteVis
Example of changing intraday dynamics - ES would have bounced harder here at the 1324 area in the past month...
ReplyDeleteVis
Good outlook.
ReplyDeleteMarket doesn't appear too strong even with the upward momentum in the past two days. If ES closes above today's highs I would have to reconsider, but I still like a continuation down from here and/or off the 1329-1331 level. I would like to see a faster move down (which could still happen if selling comes back in), but the downward path could be slow and choppy... We'll see...
It still may go higher from here, but did not touch and bounce like it has before...
ReplyDeleteVis
That is true, not seeing the buying confidence now... somewhat of an intra-day bear flag now
ReplyDeleteYes, and daily volume patterns since the first of the year suggest distribution is taking place to some extent. Look at the huge vol down days compared to the up days. Vol is also very low today and SPY vol was higher on a weekly basis last week with just 4 days of trading... Something to keep an eye on...
ReplyDeleteVis
Long 5 cons 1321.75...
ReplyDeleteVis
Sold 5 cons 1322.75...
ReplyDeleteVis