Markets down in Europe and Asia this morning and U.S. market gapping down almost 10 points.
Jobless claims came in better than expected, but market failed to see much of a bid after the news. Will be important to see if buying can come back into the market today. I like selling the up-ticks today in anticipation of trading down to at least 1305-1306. I will be looking to buy the market in the lower 1300s and expect the 1299-1301 support to hold if the ES trades down there. Remember, be careful when buying a market that is selling off. Wait for support to confirm before trying to guess a bottom.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1313-1314, 1320-1322
Support below at: 1310, 1305-1306, 1299-1301, 1295-1296
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Short at ES 1314, looking for 2-3 points as a morning range trade
ReplyDeleteCover at 1311.25 for 3 points, will look to get short again next uptick
ReplyDeleteThe pierce of the 1310 level followed by a mini reversal back up makes entering a new short a little more risky. Still looking to get short again though, just being patient with an entry...
ReplyDeleteon a side note, inverse relationship between dollar and equities market is back on again. Its been an on-again/off-again relationship of late...
ReplyDeleteShort ES again at 1312.25
ReplyDeleteCover at 1314.25
ReplyDeleteToo early to confirm if a bottom was put in, but it is looking that way. Pretty good resistance here at 1316-1317. Will be looking for scalp trades until market can confirm direction
ReplyDeleteMorning Verde - SPX going for 1335 area before we roll over for real... Shaking the tree now... Trade smart...
ReplyDeleteVis
Short ES at 1315, consider stop at 1315.75
ReplyDeleteand out
ReplyDeleteYes Vis, trade smart. Definitely a shake out b4 it falls, very typical of a topping process. Lets avoid getting chopped up in the process
ReplyDeleteAny opportunities to get short here below the current high at 1317.25 look good. Tough level to break above at this point... No defense above that level.
ReplyDeleteNow that we have been consolidating up at the highs for this long, it is possible to see a pierce of the high just to hit the stops and then the reversal down. At the same time there is risk of a breakout by the current bull flag like pattern, so it is better to get stopped out rather than risk an acceleration to the upside. If it does reverse, you can always get back into the short...
ReplyDeleteAlmost a gap fill now - still appears to want to go higher today... Looking at SPX 1330-1335 area as a 100% retrace from 667 low in March 09 in the next few days... We'll see...
ReplyDeleteVis
Very true there is a gap dating back to 6/17/2008 that has yet to be filled
ReplyDeleteActually Vis, I assume you are talking about the 2/4/2008 gap. The 6/17 gap was already filled this week...
ReplyDeleteOn second thought, I am not seeing your gap level Vis... Which gap are you talking about?
ReplyDeleteSorry Verde - I meant the SPX gap down from this morning - It has now been filled at 1321... Just can't help but to think that the market still wants higher in the next few days... I will short heavy at the 1333 area if we get there... Until then, just small scalps on ES... Very hard to get comfortable in either direction right now...
ReplyDeleteVis
Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the market move higher. Up-trend still 100% intact... I think your strategy is good, keep trades intra-day for now, take profits when you get them...
ReplyDeleteNo luck scalping in this mess, HFT Algorithms are ahead of my orders every time, can not get a fill to save my life today...
ReplyDelete