I will be waiting to see if the market can find direction this morning. If ES can trade back above 1317, it will be an indication of a continuation of the moderate strength from yesterday. A retest of the highs above 1320 will represent the 6th such test in the past 5 days and could result in higher highs. At the same time there is a slight downward trend emerging over the past 3 days, so we'll see if we get another lower low today that would fill the gap from the close 1 week ago.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1316-1317, 1320-1321
Support below at: 1308-1310, 1305-1306, 1299-1301, 1295-1296
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Good morning Verde - Agree, today may be a snoozefest without much movement in either direction... Resolution hopefully will come next week... Just scalping today with you...
ReplyDeleteVis
Unless it starts to break down within the next hour, I think I'll be starting my weekend early...
ReplyDeleteShort at 1316.75
ReplyDeleteScratched trade
ReplyDeleteIf ES fails to get through this 1317 level, I'll get back in Short
ReplyDeleteShort 1317.25
ReplyDeleteWill consider stop if ES retests 1318.50
ReplyDeleteShort ES 1318.25 - Will add if needed...
ReplyDeleteVis
Still Holding...
ReplyDeleteI did attempt to get out of this trade but was not filled on my limit orders. I continue to hold only because I would have entered short here at 1320-1321 anyway. Unfortunately I have to take a little more heat than is preferable...
ReplyDeleteAdded 1 con at 1320.50 - Cost basis now 1319.50 with 2 cons... Will add more if needed...
ReplyDeleteVis
Exit at 1322.25
ReplyDeleteCareful Vis.
ReplyDeleteAdded 6 cons - Cost basis now 1322.25 with 8 cons...
ReplyDeleteVis
from post above: "If ES can trade back above 1317, it will be an indication of a continuation of the moderate strength from yesterday. A retest of the highs above 1320 will represent the 6th such test in the past 5 days and could result in higher highs"
ReplyDeleteNext resistance at Upper zone of current up-trend channel is 1330
Possible top for the day just put in at 1327
ReplyDeleteI feel like gambling today Verde... That was a mini squeeze just then...
ReplyDeleteWill add again if needed...
Vis
Bearish divergences everywhere - Blow off top maybe - We'll see..
ReplyDeleteVis
Could be...
ReplyDeleteShort at 1325.25
Stop above the current high. Hard stop for me this time.
ReplyDeletePatience is a virtue huh...;-)
ReplyDeleteVis
Going to continue to hold this Short
ReplyDeleteOut 8 cons at 1321.00...
ReplyDeleteVis
Love those type of trades...;-)
ReplyDeleteYep Vis, as Axl said, "All we need is just a little patience"...
ReplyDeleteI will begin to get excited about the short side potential if we see a close below today's open (the lower below the better)
Vis, why would you get out of all your contracts? this is potentially a very negative development forming... You risked a lot for not very much reward...
ReplyDeleteYup, might just have to play that song right now...
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, a close below SPX cash 1318.66 should set things in motion for more downside next week...
Vis
I'm just not comfortable holding longer term "yet" - want to see more confirmation that this is real - Not really risking alot with that last trade as I will trade anywhere from 1 to 200 contracts on an intraday basis in any given trade...
ReplyDeleteMarket is too manipulated right now - Let's see how they close it today...
Vis
Great short entry here at 1323. Minimum risk. Cover if it moves above 1324
ReplyDeleteAre you not still short from 1325.25?
ReplyDeleteCapitulation volume today to the upside to make new high. Looks like that high was stops being hit. Last time we saw that type of intra-day volume candle was the 1/28 sell-off. It was followed by a reversal that may have culminated at today's high. We have to wait to see how it plays out, but you can't ignore the possibility that we will get a significant down move from here...
ReplyDeleteI am still short yes. Just mentioning this marks a great entry if not short already.
ReplyDelete1.3 mil contracts traded so far - would like to see 2.5 mil plus today and a close alot further down than where we are now to show capitulation/blow off...
ReplyDeleteVis
Like I said too early to tell, but when looking at short time-frame volume (i.e. 20 min interval or less), volume is significant...
ReplyDeleteAs I said yesterday, still think SPX cash 1330-1335 area could be in the cards before we turn...
ReplyDeleteVis
Definitely a possibility. But today's action gives me confidence for an imminent reversal, whether today or to begin next week...
ReplyDeleteWill stop out at the high, but will look at every opportunity to get back in short if that happens
ReplyDeleteToday's close puts a hold on the expectations of a reversal. However, that opportunity should present itself early next week... Obviously need to be careful as the charts are quite bullish. Have to wait and see...
ReplyDeleteWill do analysis over the weekend and post my thoughts on Sunday...