I remain biased to the long-side even as the market is moving slightly lower. There has not yet been a sign that the current action has necessarily bottomed, but in an overall bullish market, you don't always get a definitive reversal signal during phases of downward consolidation. For that reason, I continue to like long entries in the mid 1430s. Of course if you are a shorter-term trader, you have to consider the good possibility of getting a better long entry at a lower price. But the reason it remains a good long opportunity (especially for swing traders), is that I expect higher highs to be on the horizon before we see any significant correction.
If I had to specify the reason the current weakness has not been met with more buying enthusiasm, it would be because the market was already at multi-year highs when QE3 was announced, there was already expectation of QE priced in, the market is already feeling pressure to price in an Obama second term (which is perceived negatively because of the belief that it would mean a hike in taxes which would limit growth and be bad for GDP), as well as on-going concerns over Spanish debt yields and Europe in general.
As I said, I remain biased to the long side overall.
Some support levels to consider on the ES (Z Dec Contract) are:
1429-1430, 1425-1426, 1419-1420, 1415-1416, 1403-1406
Very Short-term bias is to the downside, but overall bias remains long. A reversal could come at any moment, but for now it looks like the market will move lower before it moves higher.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
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