Last week the market rallied over 100 points. There was a good chance of a pull-back off the 1245-1250 resistance level on the ES, but sellers did not enter the market. I covered my short on Friday morning.
Reports that the European Central Bank is preparing to inject 1 trillion euros into its financial system for use in bond buying, and that officials in Italy have established a new austerity plan have produced confidence. Combined with the bullish market action, there is no reason to be thinking short at this point.
I do believe there will be an opportunity to get short for one more decent sell-off (30-50 points) before the year is out and that will only set up another nice buying opportunity. My immediate bias however, is neutral to bullish. ES could easily trade up to 1290 at this point. Short entries will only be scalps or day trades for now. ES could see a small move down this morning off the 1262-1264 resistance. Will consider long entries off the 1251-1253 level on the ES.
No telling signs at the moment, not looking to take any significant positions until better signals present themselves...
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Seeing some selling this afternoon as S&P to place all 17 EU nations on ratings downgrade watch negative
ReplyDeletehello Verde...did you bought at 1250 or are you still looking for a long order?
ReplyDeleteWe have 3 big gaps until 1157 and my indicators are telling me we must have a break of at least 1-2 days. i would short the sp500.. we will see
Ric
I usually won't post any trades unless I am looking to hold at least overnight. At present I am only looking at short term day trades and scalps. But both yesterday before the close and this morning I have taken a few long trades netting between 1 and 3 points each on scalps...
ReplyDeleteIn terms of market direction right now, I am neutral to bullish as I think it is more likely we see a slightly higher high than a sell-off in the immediate term. Nothing significant yet, in terms of weakness, to give me high confidence on the short side...
In regard to those gaps (11/25 and 11/29), I don't think they will be filled in 2011. The 11/29 gap, which would fill around 1196.50 on the ES, has a chance of being filled, but I don't see the ES breaking below 1200 this month. I do anticipate that lower lows in 2012 are a very likely scenario, but we'll talk about that when it is more relevant...
Though when I say neutral-bullish in the immediate term, I don't mean buy the high that was just made at 1260 as I posted this...
ReplyDeleteSaying I am neutral just means that I am not looking for extended gains in either direction outside of the identified range. And when I say neutral-bullish, it just means I think there is greater likelihood of a move higher out of the range than I expect a move lower out of the range.
And the current range in my neutral bias is around 1245-1265 ES.
ReplyDeletehi verde! are you already long at 1245?
ReplyDeleteI still think we have to go to around 1233( the next resistence).
But what will happen tomorrow? what have the big players for? what kind of set up have they preparred for tomorrow? i don't have any ideas. My bias for tomorrow is a little bullish, but very little. Have you an idea how we can trade the coming information from europe?
Ric
I'll post some thoughts later this evening...
ReplyDeleteAnd yes of course I took that long entry :)
Currently flat.
Looks like selling pressure now is a reaction to headlines suggesting EU's AAA rating may be downgraded by S&P
ReplyDeletei was not meaning to the already obvious downgrade of many europe states; i was referrring to the european summit that will occur and show "some muscle" and will propose a pragmatic solution of the debt problem of europe.
ReplyDeleteRic
Yes, I knew what you were saying, I will post some thoughts on that this evening.
ReplyDeleteI should clarify my comment... It was just a reactionary post to a headline that came across the wires at that moment (2:45 pm EST) The market sold off in response to that headline... a clear fake-out move to what ended up being a monster rally to the upside...
yes verde you are right!
ReplyDeleteI will read your comments tomorrow with pleasure, now it is time to sleep.
Have a nice rest of the day
Ric
I didn't get to do a post last night, other obligations kept me away from doing my homework. Because of that, I didn't get to take advantage of this morning's short opportunity.
ReplyDeleteNice call on your 1233 level Ric! Lets see if that support hold's up over night...