Its been a tough few days as the market has chopped up and down in as misleading a way as possible. With low volume, there was just not enough participation to drive price lower. Bears needed to have conviction to profit in the past few days, and there were plenty of reasons to be confident on the short side. Specifically, bond yields in Italy and the rest of the PIGS are presenting warning signs that a default will be inevitable without intervention by the European Central Bank.
My first target on the ES of 1226-1227 should be hit this evening (up-trending support is actually at 1229 now). We may get a bounce from there, but I maintain my short bias and expect a move below 1200 is on the horizon. Next target is 1184-1186 ES. From there I expect support to hold. Maximum downside potential is around 1150 and if price does get that low, I will get long with confidence. At that point (when support confirms), I will be looking to buy the dips for the remainder of 2011.
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2nd target hit. Long now at ES 1183.
ReplyDeleteCareful defending any longs here. Market and price action remain weak.
Keep in mind that support has yet to confirm. We will likely consolidate in the 1180-1190 range. A move back to ES 1200 is likely in the next 24 hours. Key is to build up a cushion scalping the range so that when the swing long entry presents itself, you can take advantage.
ReplyDeleteTrend remains down...
Taking profits on longs here at 1192 ES. Will continue to trade the range...
ReplyDelete