Tuesday, October 11, 2011

The Slovakian Vote

Slovakian vote on EFSF expansion will be delayed as parliament will continue discussions into the evening. The vote may even be delayed until later in the week. This means they have yet to get a "Yes" vote. The extension of the meeting is likely an attempt to try and change the minds of the "Nays". I suppose Merkel, Sarkozy and other European leaders are fearing the fallout of what a "No" vote hitting the wires will do to the markets.

Without the vote, looking like we won't see any significant action for the remainder of the day in US markets.

Looking at how to play the Slovakian EFSF decision:

The market is short-term overbought already with more resistance overhead so I don't think a "Yes" vote will be able to carry the Indexes too much higher. I will look for opportunities to sell the market regardless of the Slovak vote. However, if the vote is a "Yes", I might wait and sell a rally following the decision...

In any case, we won't get the decision during today's market session so we'll just have to wait and see...

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