Initial claims and continuing jobless claims both came in lower than expected, but the market doesn't care. Positive news like this is insignificant in today's bear market conditions. ES traded lower than yesterday's lows after a brief rally in overnight trading was rejected. Although it appears that the market is trying to make a base here around 1100 (ES), I'm not convinced it will hold. I expected Tuesday's rally to have a bit more strength, but the ES wasn't able to move to my 1200 target. While still a possibility, I see it as less likely now.
A new low is a significant possibility today. If the ES closes below 1077 (whether today or in the coming days), 1000-1020 is likely the next buying opportunity.
I will consider buying dips and selling the rallies as long as resistance remains strong in the mid 1100s and support holds in the lower 1100s. I expect to see support break down first.
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Although this is a potential shorting area as ES trades to 1150, I don't see a short signal here yet. Still bullish... Waiting
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see one last new high tick with high volume, perhaps around 1157. If that is rejected, I like a short with a target of around 1135.
ReplyDeleteWill likely short ES around 1184 assuming it gets there today...
ReplyDeleteA short now above 1180 is not a bad idea, but aggressive. Just waiting on a sell signal at this point. May trade up all the way into the close. Still no sign of a loss of momentum...
ReplyDeleteCouldn't post my trades, but turned out to be a nice short. 1184 was on point.
ReplyDeleteWe should get another move back down the current range. Looking like a bottom is forming. I don't rule out another new low, but we'll watch and see how things play out.
If ES makes a higher high from here, I will continue to fade to the short side.
Something to watch tomorrow, NY Fed President William Dudley to speak at 10:00am EST