Oil has continued higher since making new highs on Friday. Gold and Silver also rallying as potential flights to safety amidst rising oil prices and global turmoil. Battles in Libya continue to rage between government forces and rebels suggesting that unrest in Middle East/North Africa (MENA) is far from over.
Surprisingly, US markets are not lower this morning after crude oil futures traded almost as high as $107 in the last hour.
My bias is to the short-side today and I expect to see the market make new lows soon. That being said, technical levels continue to show support underneath current market prices. The overall up-trend has not yet confirmed a break-down. For that reason, I can't be overly confident on the short-side just yet and will have to continue to trade what I see. For the short-side to play out, the ES needs to see another move below 1300 and if the lows (1293-1294 ES) are tested again, I don't expect them to hold.
I favor shorting the up-ticks into resistance as of now.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1326-1327, 1333-1334
Support Below at: 1312-1314, 1304-1305, 1298-1299, 1293-1294, 1290, 1285-1286
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Hey Verde,
ReplyDeleteGreat blog. Ive been watching the bearish technicals on the SP500 - so far above the MAs, a broadening top formation and a doji on the weekly, which makes me think a move down is imminent. But I totally agree that we need to trade what we see.
R
Short ES at 1326.50
ReplyDeleteAggressive short in the early going, not looking to hold this too long. Tentatively looking for 3-4 points here. Can consider taking profits sooner...
ReplyDeleteThe original short made good for scalping 1-2 points at a clip. At this point, can consider holding short a bit longer. Its best to have multiple contracts on a trade like this, so you can take some profits and let the rest run...
ReplyDeleteFirst target is 1322. Potentially much more to be had on this short though...
Cover at 1321.50 for 5 points
ReplyDeleteWill consider shorting again on an up-tick.
ReplyDeleteLong ES 1311. Looking for 3 points or so, maybe can get more...
ReplyDeleteWent against me, looking to exit this trade on the next up-tick...
ReplyDeleteLongs are tough today, I'm looking to get out back close to my entry (1311) if we can just get a little more of a bid here
ReplyDeleteExit at 1308... accept the 3 point loss here. Thought there was a good opportunity to the long side... Just no buying coming in yet. Will not entertain another long entry until we have seen some buying actually come in...
ReplyDeleteHello Verde - Price is moving per my last post on Friday. Resistance on the monthly that I was refering to was around 1325. I am long here at 1310 also. Will add if needed...
ReplyDeleteVis...
Sold at 1310.25 - Not comfortable holding long here yet... Will get back in either way as price sets up... They may use Friday's lows as resistance now...
ReplyDeleteVis...
Got the up-tick after-all. I didn't get back in long. Market got me on that one.
ReplyDeleteIt is important to evaluate strengths and weaknesses in your trading. I notice I am least profitable trading mid-day or during lunch hours. Goal is to try and eliminate those areas in your trading style that take away from profits. I must work on my mid-day trading, the biggest detractor from my overall PnL
Vis, I can see trading longer-term off monthly time-frame resistance levels, but I don't think it is a good idea to trade intra-day off such levels. I don't see a relevant "monthly time-frame" resistance at 1325... if you send me your charts, I can have a better discussion with you about it...
ReplyDeleteTry and trade the setups and not worry about time of day. Let price adjust to your setup and then click the button, monitor and react as price unfolds. You are absolutely correct in saying that traders have to trade according to "what works for them". But, reading charts are only part of trading profitably. Emotions and account size make up a bigger % of trading successfully than the technical aspects of trading, and every individual has greatly varied emotions when trading the markets.
ReplyDeleteVis
True. But in regard to trading off a long-time frame resistance (just based on what you said in your post regarding "monthly levels"), I think the trade setup would have been to short at 1325 back around the end of January and to hold that trade for the year... Just trying to understand your calculation of resistance Vis. Good for discussion here.
ReplyDeleteNot trading intraday from a monthly as such. The reason for watching that level on the monthly chart was to give me an idea of where the up/down pressure was going to speculatively be going forward. Hitting resistance at 1325 along with the distribution days that we've had and the fact that we are still early in the month of March told me this week was probably going to be down which gives confidence to the intraday decision making process...
ReplyDeleteVis
Looking to short around 1314
ReplyDeleteAgree, looks like a good entry. Watch for an upside break of Friday lows though as an exit...
ReplyDeleteVis
I missed the ES entry, but I managed to catch the NQ at the highs and get short there... Took the NQ as its slightly cheaper and felt more comfortable at the close with that contract...
ReplyDeletegood trading... cya mañana