Friday, February 4, 2011

Will Markets Break Out of Consolidation Pattern Today?

Market continues to consolidate above 1300 ES. There have been plenty of opportunities to trade the range doing some variation of selling above 1304 and buying below 1300. However, the market will eventually break upwards to new highs or break down. So if you're are considering shorting the high end of the range or buying the bottom of the range going forward, it is important to remember that the odds for success go down the longer the market consolidates.

Furthermore, we have Unemployment news this morning at 8:30EST which could be the catalyst for some movement. Watch for a false breakout to the upside. The 1310 level (ES) continues to be a bias-changer for me. As long as ES doesn't close above 1310, I continue my short bias.

Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at: 1305-1306, 1310, 1313
Support below at: 1301, 1295-1296, 1288-1290, 1283-1284, 1278-1279
Posted by Verde at 8:00 AM
Labels: , ,

23 comments:

  1. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    Short ES at 1307

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  2. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 8:33 AM

    No defense above the new high

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  3. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    Cover at 1300.50 - Taking 6.5 points. Will be looking to get short again...

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  4. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 9:56 AM

    Short Again at 1303.50

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  5. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    Will consider exiting if ES touches 1305

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  6. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    Still holding...

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  7. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:09 AM

    Exit at 1304.25

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  8. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    Morning Verde - Short with you at 1303.75

    Vis

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  9. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:16 AM

    Out 1302.75 - 2 cons - Not taking any chances with this market yet...

    Vis

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  10. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    Short 1304.50 - 1 con

    Vis

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  11. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:35 AM

    Morning Vis...

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  12. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    Out 1303.50 - 1 con

    Vis

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  13. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:43 AM

    SPX cash is going to have a hard time punching through August 2008 highs of 1313.00 - A correction is coming soon...

    Vis

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  14. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    Continued dollar strength will be good for a continuation down here on ES

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  15. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:51 AM

    Yup, and its very unlikely that SPX can have the strength to get through that key 1313 level, but if the dollar somehow broke down from here, it is possible... But I don't see that...

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  16. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 10:59 AM

    Bullish divergence forming on the daily RSI on the dollar... It should find a cycle low here soon...

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  17. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 11:06 AM

    Long 1299.00 - 1 con

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  18. AnonymousFebruary 4, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    Out 1300.00

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  19. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 2:01 PM

    Will be looking to get short here as we are approaching the latter parts of the session. I do not want to see a confirmed move back above 1306. Not a great sign for shorts if ES closes the day over 1306...

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  20. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 2:25 PM

    Short ES at 1305.25

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  21. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 2:33 PM

    Won't defend this above 1307

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  22. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 3:49 PM

    Took a two point loss on that...

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  23. VerdeFebruary 4, 2011 at 4:21 PM

    Not the close I was looking for. Although it is bullish, the action today doesn't confirm anything, was just continued consolidation in the end. I maintain my short bias (for now). No major data releases until jobless claims next Thursday. See if any global events can influence the markets before then... Enjoy the weekend...

    ReplyDelete

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