GDP numbers to be released momentarily are expected to be expansionary with Real GDP estimates at 2.9% to 5.4% annualized as it is believed that the US economy is picking up. Lets see what numbers are released and how the market reacts.
Continue to look for shorting opportunities.
Levels to watch today on ES:
Resistance above at: 1298-1299, 1305-1306, 1312-1313
Support below at: 1289-1290, 1283-1284, 1278-1279, 1273-1274
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Short ES at 1298
ReplyDeleteGDP more or less as expected. Real GDP = 3.2%, GDP Price Index = .3%
ReplyDeleteIf we don't see any negative pressure after the first hour of trading today, I will be switching to a neutral to long bias...
ReplyDeleteScratch ES at 1298 ahead of Consumer Sentiment number.
ReplyDeleteLong ES 1295.50
ReplyDeleteSell at 1293
ReplyDeleteLong Again 1293
ReplyDeleteLong second contract at 1288.50 for an average price of 1292
ReplyDeleteTarget now is 1292.
ReplyDeleteSell 2 contracts at 1286
ReplyDeleteWill buy them back if the 1285 support holds. Otherwise I will consider a buy at 1278.
ReplyDeleteStill scratching my head over decision to abandon my original position over "fear" of a consumer sentiment number... Lesson. Never try and predict tick by tick moves in the market. You cannot... Mistakes are easily made and can be costly. I will continue to post as I attempt to mitigate the current losses...
20 Points down from the High now. Will we see any bounce?
ReplyDeleteLong ES at 1273.25. Stop at 1272.25.
ReplyDeleteTarget here 1279-1280
ReplyDeleteStill holding long. Think there is strong likelihood to get a couple more points out of this move...
ReplyDeleteStill Holding Long
ReplyDeleteWould love to see a move back to 1284-1286. Will reverse my position there without hesitation...
ReplyDeleteShort-term noise shows lower low and lower high in this lower consolidation, which signals a further move down... but noise isn't super reliable... we'll see...
ReplyDeleteI remain long only because there is strong support down at the lows, we had capitulation volume on the first move down to the lows. Plus, odds are favorable for at least a 38.2% retrace
ReplyDeleteOK, sold my ES at 1275.25.
ReplyDeleteWe should have seen a continuation to the upside on that last attempt. Still looking for another long entry. Expect a short cover rally into the close. 1284-1286 is still a target into the close...
Back in my long at 1275.50!
ReplyDeleteCan't post any more quick trading activity here in the last hour. Will not defend this current long below 1274.
ReplyDeleteCaution, could still make a new low. Target remains at 1284-1286, it will either happen now or I will be watching for a short-cover rally in the closing minutes of the session
No sign of short covering yet even as we have made several minor new lows... 1267 a possibility
ReplyDeleteWill post if I go long...
Shorts do not cover into the close, the few in favor of a rally into the close sold it down to yet another new low as the futures session closed. Buyers no where to be found. That's not a good sign for the market. Almost no opportunity to get short (without risk) today if you didn't get short from the highs.
ReplyDeleteTop is in as predicted...
I was convinced the top would be in Wednesday or Thursday. It didn't happen. I still said the top would be in this week. But waiting till the 3d day was sufficient enough to lull me into a stupor. Just enough so that I missed the top. Market teaches you a lesson no matter how long you have been trading. All you can do is learn from it...