Official jobs report comes in under estimates with only 216,000 new jobs (both non-farm and private), 124,000 less than expected. The unemployment rate came in lower than expectations though at 9.4% versus 9.7%. We saw some quick selling come into the market following the report. ES traded down to the 1265 support and has now recovered and is holding steady back up at 1268.
This sets a negative tone for the day. I will be looking to sell the up-ticks. I think the employment situation is still bad, any gains are more likely a result of seasonal fluctuation and/or the result of expiring unemployment benefits.
Levels to watch today on the ES:
Resistance above at 1269-1270, 1275
Support below at: 1265, 1260-1261, 1256 and 1250-1251
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Market can't find direction this morning. Be careful not to get chopped up here... I If I was able to get short up around 1273, I would hold it as I think the market will eventually sell-off. However, I don't like entries here where the ES is trading at the volume weighted average, currently at 1269.50
ReplyDeleteLooking to get short at the first sign of contention between sellers and buyers here in the 1265-1266 price area on the ES
ReplyDeleteLooking for a potential fake-out move to the upside right around noon. I will look to fade that up-move and try to catch a sell-wave back down to retest the lows...
ReplyDeleteby noon, I mean 3:00EST
ReplyDeleteThe tentative short entry now is between 1266.50 and 1268 (ES)
ReplyDeleteconsumer credit report due out in 13 minutes. If consumer credit is higher than expected, I will be less likely to enter the short position... Short term rises in consumer credit are good for the market in the short-run, but of course bad in the longer-term picture...
ReplyDeleteconsumer credit report seems to be a non-factor. I'm less tempted to get short now as we have not seen any sort of spike upwards, no fake-outs, just a steady churn upward... watching and waiting for opportunity to take a position...
ReplyDeletenot short yet...
ReplyDeleteBeginning to look like no trade to be had here. I will consider shorting the market at the close...
ReplyDelete