Yesterday the S&P 500 traded down to the 200 period moving average (1227.50 on the 60 min chart) for the first time in 12 days. We quickly saw buying come into the market and the ES closed the day up more than 10 points off the low. The current rally (and up-trend pattern) that began on December 1st, has not yet broken down technically, so there is no reason to be bearish... yet. That being said, I remain confident that a short-term market top is in formation. I expect to see continued up and down action for the remainder of 2010 with the formation of new highs still likely. We may have to wait till the new year before seeing the market correction I anticipate. My strategy for today and the coming week is to short new highs and buy dips.
For this morning, I am bullish, though trading action may be light and possibly boring. Asian stocks closed around the flat-line and European stocks have been quiet. I expect the ES to test the highs of 1242 with potential to trade up to 1246-1247. I will look to get long when the ES trades down around 1235-1236.
If I enter any trades, I will post them in the comments...
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I will look for a long entry as we tick down and find resistance on the ES. I am looking at 1235-1236, but there is a chance we continue down further, at which point I might look at 1233 as a better long entry
ReplyDeleteShort ES at 1237, Will not Defend above 1237.75.
ReplyDeleteLooking for 3-4 points here at which point I will flip and go long
Cover this short at 1236.50, it moved 2.5 points in my favor, but we couldn't see any follow through, so just taking a couple ticks and getting out now
ReplyDeleteShort again at 1237, just a scalp, not defense above 1237.75
ReplyDeleteCovered short at 1237.50
ReplyDeleteI think the low of the day is in, I misplayed my first short looking for too much. Missed the chance get long down at 1235. I am now looking for the next opportunity to buy the ES, maybe at 1236...
Expect the ES to trade to new highs into the close. I will be looking to buy any dips ahead of this anticipated move... One interesting thing to note is that the SPY is currently trading a half a percent lower than the S&P cash index and futures. It may be related to the fact it is options expiration today... in any case, I'll be watching that relationship moving forward
ReplyDeleteLooking at buying 1239 if the ES trades down there and finds support...
ReplyDeleteLong ES at 1239
ReplyDeleteExit ES at 1238.75, Didn't get buying into the Friday close after all
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the weekend...