Looking at Gold and the Dollar as compared to the S&P 500, you could make an argument to support that the market is making a possible top right now.
Gold made a high on December 7th and has since traded down a bit into a possible bear flag formation. You could argue that if the markets are following Gold's lead and gold is about to make a further push down, then this new high on the S&P could mark the beginning of a reversal down. Also, if you look at the dollar, it made a high on November 30th. This coincides with the beginning of the current short term rally in equities. The dollar has since traded down to its most recent higher low on December 5th and has since been making higher lows. You could argue that the dollar will continue up since it found support at the 20 MA on the daily chart on December 5th. For this you could also argue that equities will trade down in concert with the upward trend on the US dollar.
What is also significant is that the average number of daily gainers versus daily losers in stocks is trending down amidst this current rally, another sign that the rally is coming to a short term end.
These are all reasons to allow you to speculate a top is forming. However, if you prefer, you can wait for confirmation that the current up-trend is broken before going short. To do that wait for consecutive candle closes below the upward trending 8 and 20 period moving averages; on the ES, you would want to wait for confirmation below 1231-1232 intra-day and/or below 1217-1218 on the daily chart...
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