Friday, September 3, 2010
Employment Numbers Better Than Consensus Estimates
Market Rallies 14+ Points peaking at 1103.75, 66+ points off Tuesday's low. Nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls were ahead of estimates, employment rate and hourly work week came in as expected, but the positive payrolls were enough to get people into a buying fury this morning. I am looking to initiate my short position now. I missed the chance above 1102 on the ES and I don't know if the market will trade back up there so I need to look for the next best entry point. I will post here in the comments if/when that happens...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Short 1102.50
ReplyDeleteA continuation to the upside, i.e. past 1105, will be extremely bullish and would be a surprise to me. Holding my short.
ReplyDeleteIf we do tick up to 1105-1106, I will consider exiting this short as we could continue up to 1110. Gap fill from way back on 8/11 is up at 1118-1120. I do believe the market is heading there, I will just be very surprised if we don't get a down-tick before that happens. I don't expect the market to continue straight up.
ReplyDeleteCovered Short at 1095
ReplyDeleteTook profits a bit earlier than I would have liked. But I decided to take the guaranteed 7.5 points now as the ES was at the level just above where the market broke out from the employment news. I will look for opportunities to get back in this short again...
ReplyDeleteI'm neutral at the moment, I may try a short again if we move back up to 1099-1100, we'll see how the market trades, because we could head higher now before getting the real pull-back. Hard to say at this time...
ReplyDeleteShort at 1099.50, Will think about exiting if we tick up to 1101.
ReplyDeleteWe are right at key intra-day resistance at 1099-1100. We could get a fake-out move above this, but then sell back down, that is why I won't just cover my position right away if it goes against me
ReplyDeleteWill attempt to scratch this trade on the down-tick back to my entry
ReplyDeleteNeeds to break down now or I will cover... I don't have a limit order in yet so that I have the chance to hold this trade if it actually continues down lower than my entry at 1099.50
ReplyDeleteCovered short for 1 point loss at 1100.50, could still go lower, but decided to get out, I didn't like the action any longer, showed a chance to break down when it moved to 1100, but didn't accelerate, plus the 8 MA was not being broken through, that was my reasoning to finally cover
ReplyDeletecouldn't have timed that exit better as market just broke upwards...
ReplyDeleteCould have shorted again when the market stalled at 1102-1103. Now we have moved back down to my original entry. Wouldn't be surprised to see the market close right around 1100. Good news for Bernanke as it looks like the market will head into the long weekend up over 5% in a week. Good for his theory that American consumers will spend money when the market is positive... I think I am done trading for the day... Enjoy the long weekend if you have one................
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see a push higher early next week or into the open on Tuesday. If that happens, I'll be setting up to enter a short position. The higher we continue to push w/out a significant pull-back, the better the odds of getting a short position to move heftily in your favor...
ReplyDelete