Thursday, August 19, 2010

A Theory Regarding The Pre-Market Action

I know I said I had a short side bias right now and I do, however, I keep an opposing point of view on my mind as well. This morning's sell off of almost 12 points seemed a little excessive in reaction to the news (Initial claims came in at 500,000 vs 475,000 estimate) and could have just been an excuse to liquidate some positions and set a negative mood for the market. If this was the case, it would be the perfect chance for the big boys to buy back in at a lower price before they take the market higher. But like i said, I'll keep my short bias as long as we don't see sustained buying above 1090-1092.

In any case, I expect to see choppy algo-driven action in the early going before we either break to new lows or eventually meander our way back up into the 1090s... Another thing to watch for is a fake out to the downside. If we break to a new low and early and then quickly find support and come back up, that would also lead me to believe that the weakness is suspect.

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