S&P Futures saw a little buying surge this morning when new jobless claims came in positive with a decrease of 27K claims month over month and the ES surged to new highs right up to the minor 1060-1062 resistance.
Ahead of the market open, my bias is to the upside. I will be looking to buy the down-ticks. I will be a buyer if we trade back down to 1055 and again down at 1050 (Note: Gap Fill is around 1053 or 105.93 on the SPY). We would have to move lower than 1047 for my bias to really turn negative.
To the upside, I am looking for a potential move to 1073-1075
Some potential resistance along the way will come in at 1067 (which also happens to be 30 points above yesterday's low), then again at 1073-1075 (I will be looking at potential longer term shorts here), and then 1080.
My longer term view remains negative and I continue to expect lower lows. If we confirm a move above 1080, I will reconsider that position.
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If we come back down to 1055 now, I will not take a long there as we already saw a bounce off 1055.25. I will wait for a lower entry, or if we break to the upside, I will consider a higher level to get long
ReplyDeleteGot Long at 1054.25, first 1/3 position
ReplyDeleteThis could end up being a narrow range consolidation day after the nice move up that we saw yesterday. Will definitely be looking to scalp the current market movement.
ReplyDeleteThe market may try to disguise its attraction to the 1067 level and the real move could come in tomorrow. Something to be aware of...
The last move down should not be perceived as overly negative. It was likely just a probe for stops. See, the market will do what it can to shake out the weak longs ahead of any likely move up, you see it time and time again. If we turn down again and move below 1050, it will be potentially negative. However, until we move below 1047-48, I will not be convinced of the negativity...
ReplyDeleteGood opportunity to get long here in the low 1050s for a scalp play. I am not adding to my swing trade yet, because it wouldn't make sense price-wise. However, it is a great location
ReplyDeleteThough it is obviously late now by the time I am posting to take this long.... It is difficult to post in a timely manner regarding scalps... But I like to talk about them just as a lesson...
ReplyDeleteViewpoint going forward. I am holding my long position. Will not be surprised if market breaks below 1050. If it does, I will look to be a buyer and add to my position between 1047-1048. If it breaks lower than that, I will consider exiting my position and entering long again at a better price. I still fully expect a move to 1067...
ReplyDeleteAdded to my Long at 1047, now at 2/3 position
ReplyDeleteCharts looking very negative right now, But I'm sticking to my plan...
ReplyDeleteStill long ES on this swing trade at 2/3 position for an average entry price of 1050.50. I will post additional thoughts before tomorrow
ReplyDeleteI should have sold 1 contract when we ticked up to 1054 after the GDP news surge, but it happened fast and I missed it. Have to be careful, Ben Bernanke speaks at 10:00 am EST. Market could react. Still I like the Long... Don't want to see us break below 1050. May exit 1 contract if we do, so that I have teh opportunity to buy back in lower and get a better average price...
ReplyDeleteAdded another contract at 1039.25
ReplyDeleteExited my entire 3/3 full position at 1046.75 for break even on the average entry price...
ReplyDeleteUnreal. If you have read my comments, I have been pretty steadfast in my opinion that the market was heading higher, I said I would not let the market trick me into getting me out of my position. But look, the fricking thing pulls the biggest trick it can think of. Amazing. Yes, I didn't take a loss on the trade, but I got out and here we don't even get a down-tick so I can't get back in... Manipulation? What do you think?
ReplyDelete