Thursday, April 29, 2010

Looking Ahead to Friday's Open

If you could only go back to March of last year and know that buying every dip in the market would be easy money, well you'd probably have a larger account than you do. My point is that after Tuesday's substantial sell-off on high volume, buyers came back into the market and prices are higher once again. The market will have a way of determining just when enough people feel safe enough to buy the dip so that buying the dip will only be a trick. The bottom will fall out when we least expect it. So my message here is not that you can't continue to buy the dips, but that you must be cautious and know that buying the dips will not work forever.

With an increase in volatility of late and larger daily ranges coming into play, I will be looking to play this market in a range between 1177 and 1216 (on the ES) until we break up or down outside of this range. That doesn't mean we can't break out tomorrow and make new highs, but I'll alter my thinking when that happens, not before.

In the near term on the ES, I am seeing resistance at 1207 and 1216.50 and support at 1198-1199. There is further support below at 1192 and 1177.

For some video analysis, see below:

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