Thursday, November 5, 2009

UUP Shows Erratic Movement Earlier Today

I was confused when I noticed the UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) spike dramatically upwards while the rest of the markets did not react. 

It was dangerous because it was a factor in my decision to go short at the time. I later learned (as I posted earlier), that "the Fund temporarily suspended the issuance of additional Creation Baskets" and as you can see on the chart, UUP stopped trading briefly as a result. The spike occurred when trading resumed and because of this, the UUP could not be relied on as an indicator. (See Figure 1.)










Figure 1. SPY in relation to UUP


From now on I will keep an eye on the $DXY (US Dollar Index) as a secondary indicator to the UUP. You can see that the US Dollar Index maintained the inverse relationship with the SPY (See Figure 2. Below). 

Figure 2. SPY in relation to US Dollar Index

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